5 Stocks You Shouldn’t Hold Through the Next Recession

5 Stocks You Shouldn’t Hold Through the Next Recession

It's easy to predict that a recession will come eventually. They always do. The trick is in the when - and even the most experienced experts take a lot of swings without making contact.

But more strategists and economists are increasing their odds of a forthcoming recession. An August survey by the National Association for Business Economics showed that three of four economists expect a recession by 2021. It could come sooner than that. Also in August, Bank of America analysts said there's a greater-than-30% chance of a recession within 12 months. In a June interview, economist Gary Shilling said, "I think we're probably already in a recession."

There are plenty of potential catalysts. Numerous international central banks are easing their policies to battle slowing economic growth. America's Federal Reserve is no exception - it just announced the second cut in its benchmark interest rate this year. The U.S.-China trade war is exacerbating things, with a salvo of tariffs weighing on consumers here and abroad. This has been reflected in the Treasury yield curve, which has inverted several times in 2019 - a recessionary warning sign.

Don't look to these five stocks for recession protection. Many businesses surely will feel the pinch of an economic pullback. But these five better-known names - while fine companies in some respects - have issues such as high debt levels and struggling growth despite the economic expansion that might make a downturn more painful for them than others.

SEE ALSO: The Pros Say No: 7 Large-Cap Stocks to Sell or Avoid

Read more: https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/T018-S001-5-stocks-you-shouldn-t-hold-in-the-next-recession/index.html

7 Low-Volatility Dividend Stocks for Peace of Mind

7 Low-Volatility Dividend Stocks for Peace of Mind

Dividend stocks are a well-worn prescription for what ails an investor's upset stomach. Are a cascade of troubling headlines and fears of Wall Street volatility making you nauseous? A regular stream of cash distributions can help smooth out your returns and restore your sanity.

But investors also are increasingly targeting a more direct solution to volatility: low-volatility funds. These products are designed to piece together a basket of stocks whose movements aren't as exaggerated as the rest of the market, and they're gaining in popularity. The iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol USA ETF (USMV), for instance, had enjoyed nearly $6 billion in net inflows through 2019's midway point. Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), which is roughly a third of the size of USMV, had brought in $2 billion.

Fortunately, dividends and low volatility aren't an either/or proposition. You can get both, and DIVCON can help us discover these more stable dividend stocks.

The DIVCON system from exchange-traded fund provider Reality Shares examines the payout health of all dividend stocks among Wall Street's 1,200 largest companies. It does that by poring into metrics including profit growth, free cash flow (how much cash companies have left over after they meet all their obligations) and even the Altman Z-score, which helps assess a company's likelihood of a bond default or bankruptcy. The resulting rating system (a 1-5 scale in which DIVCON 5 indicates the healthiest of payouts and DIVCON 1 indicates dividends at the most risk) provides a measure of a dividend's sustainability and chance of future growth.

Here are seven dividend stocks for a little peace of mind. All seven stocks not only boast strong DIVCON 4 ratings, but have exhibited lower volatility and total-return outperformance (that's price plus dividends) versus the S&P 500 over the past year.

SEE ALSO: 25 Dividend Stocks That Analysts Love the Most

Read more: https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/T018-S001-7-low-volatility-dividend-stocks-to-buy/index.html

25 Best Kirkland Products You Should Buy at Costco

25 Best Kirkland Products You Should Buy at Costco

Costco has turned on its head the notion that a store brand is a notch below a national brand. How? By using its coast-to-coast strength to strong-arm suppliers to put quality as well as value into its Kirkland Signature offerings. A quarter of Costco's annual sales now reportedly come from its Kirkland product lines, which first hit store shelves in 1995.

It's no surprise. Costco has continually upped its array of Kirkland products, often produced by the same manufacturers who make the name brands. You'll find the red Kirkland Signature logo on everything from toilet paper to tennis shoes. We took a closer look at several Kirkland products getting accolades from customers and critics. You should check them out, too.

SEE ALSO: 10 Worst Things to Buy at Walmart

Read more: https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/spending/T050-S001-25-best-kirkland-products-you-should-buy-at-costco/index.html

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